The last post of BankNIFTY Price Action Overview.
Right now, I am having short as per plan as you can see here - [Theta] BankNIFTY Price Action Overview for NSE:BANKNIFTY by Amit_Ghosh — TradingView India
It progressed somehow like this –
But this is a bullish formation. So I am closing the trade.
New Plan → in.tradingview.com/chart/BANKNIFTY/rRFHix6R-Theta-BankNIFTY-Price-Action-Overview/
- Aggressively shorted 35600PE at 170.
- Will sell 36600CE if 35800 breaks.
- If that happens, then we will get a strangle with 35600PE and 36600CE [Read here Strangle - Unofficed]
- Now, new stop loss or point of action is BEP of that strangle. If that BEP is breached, I will close the setup and book loss.
36600CE is sold at 109. BEP 170+109=279
Lower BEP - 35600-279=35321. Upper BEP -36600+279=36879
The upper BEP got breached yesterday.
Although this trade posted here [Theta] BankNIFTY Price Action Overview for NSE:BANKNIFTY by Amit_Ghosh — TradingView India worked beautifully, if you followed the commentary here. You have made loss and booked loss.
Actually I myself booked loss in few Iron Condor models where the call side got breached too fast. But let me show how I panned out in most places -
I will try to explain very broadly as I am resumed my Newton Sessions with the last batch of Newton (https://www.unofficed.com/newton). So this week’s journey I will document publicly as I have shared all trades in Slack anyways.
In Friday, I was extremely bullish in the initial position as You can see.
I had 36300PE and 36400PE. It is very aggressive! I was sure that BankNIFTY would have break the double dottom and go upside.
But it made a retracement; so I killed them all to await the weekend and did 35600PE.
In Monday, First thing, I had closed the 35600PE.
Took 35800 PE + 36000 PE + 36400CE + 37000CE.
It went ok during the daytime. So I closed the trade in minor profit and took strangle of 35800PE and 36800CE.
Thanks to my luck, the market crashed in the last half and 35800PE went to -10k, and 36800CE went to +4k. I saw a massive OI in 36000 puts too.
So I did not bothered betting that 36000 will be broken back again and I will offset then.
It shot up!!
I closed 35800PE and 36800CE. That was massive MTM gain everywhere. In the net of accounts, the unrealized loss was to the tune of 3.3cr on that strike price.
Then I took 36400PE and 36700CE intraday.
Basically, I ended up shorting the CE when the market was at support and shorting the PE when the market was in resistance.
Somehow, Loss was Less. But after Arya closed his CEs as you can see here - TradingView Chart
The market really fell too too too sharp causing me multiple heart attacks. 36400PE was at 5K profit and it went to loss.
Thanks to recency bias (Google this term), I closed the strangle.
Then I realized I am a victim of recency bias.
Then I took 36200PE + 37300CE. [Note that I realized the victim part after quite some time losing some money. That’s why the unrealized CE here has some loss.]
Now, in most other places I had only PEs or fut buys which were coming to green from massive losses.
So I was disappointed so far and was expecting market to fill the gap and go up.
It did not fill the gap.
It just went up…
In fact today it opened above my marked short covering point. Today, I was waiting for gap fill too!
But when I got confident that it won’t fill (read - I lost confidence that it will fill), I closed my strangle and took a bullish view (I changed the strangle BEP accommodating more upside).
I marked here in this chart where I have closed the strangle.
It was making HH HL pattern as per bounce theory (https://www.unofficed.com/bounce/)
So this is the net story of everything. But even with 10K in every week will make 5L. This is 4.5L account moment being. So it is fine so far.
Now, when you make the account size below 3L. You need to play this with Iron Condor.
Brokerage goes up 4x as it has 4 legs always. Profit comes down by half. So it will be like 2K in 3L